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If you choose the BTTS/more than 2.5 goals in match bet, you will likely get slightly lower odds than if you specifically back a team to win 2-1 – and yet it is a relatively common scoreline. In order to use the Poisson Distribution, you need to calculate the average number of goals each team has scored and conceded. These are called “Attack Strength” and “Defence Strength”, respectively. It is a fairly straightforward procedure; however, you must make sure your data is accurate before you start using Poisson. All you have to do is use the calculations mentioned above, this time not for the entire league but for the individual team: e : A constant equal to approximately 2.71828. ( e is the base of the natural logarithm system.) μ: The league's total attack strength. x : Both teams' total attack strength for home and away games, respectively. P( x ; μ): The Poisson probability that exactly x goals were scored when the mean number of goals is μ. Needless to say, this formula, as any other mathematical formula, is a simple predictive model that doesn't take into account numerous factors. A manager change, a key absence, bad weather, fatigue or squad rotation etc., are completely ignored. However, if you really want to understand how to beat the bookies, you should integrate its meaning. These are particularly important areas in lower league games, which can give bettors an edge against bookmakers. It is obviously harder to gain an edge in major leagues such as La Liga. Both Teams To Score Double Tip.
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